I think people sometimes seriously underestimate that power of Trump's lizard brain.
I think he understands that he is at PEAK power right now because he has all of these government jobs to hand out. But his political power will begin to wane as every elected official begins thinking about the inevitable reconning coming in 2026 AND the fact that Trump won't be on the ballot in 2028.
Thune winning the secret ballot for Majority leader was huge. McConnell still runs that show in part because he has a huge pot of money that he can use to reward those who stick with him and punish those that don't. Cruz, for example, complained bitterly that McConnell didn't "spend a dime" in Texas. Yup, McConnell made him an example of what happens to those who step out of line.
So Trump has tossed down the gauntlet with the Matt Gaetz nomination and will use that to test the level of support that he really has in the Senate. If the Senate refuses to give up their power to review appointments, then the Gaetz confirmation process will be a CIRCUS. And Trump will be able to use that circus to support his claim that his agenda in being blocked by McConnell. How that fight turns out will likely lay the foundation for how the next two years are going to go.
Excellent comment Jeff. There are three questions that hang in my brain right now.
Will Thune have some good ole fashioned chutzpah? Will he have the guts and foresight to stand up and challenge these absolutely incompetent and insulting choices to run the government? He will if he values his career. Trump won't be around much longer. All the damage he does will circle back and provide him with a karmic clobbering - and/or he will continue to disintegrate mentally and physically. All politicians are still human and have an expiration date.
Does Trump have the same type of kompromat on key formally normal Republicans that Putin has on him? Lindsey Graham is an obvious example. But how does a "moderate" Republican like Stephanik turn into a "wannabe Kari Lake"? Sure, ambition. But could there be more?
As all the votes are being cured, the election results seem to be coming closer and closer. Maybe this was not as much a mandate as it was a theft? In other words, did millions of Democrats and Independents just stay home or was it just too difficult to vote?
That being said, I think we lost for "all of the following" - black female, kitchen table economics, foreign interference especially on SM, immigration paranoia, failure of all media to continuously challenge Trumps legitimacy as a candidate, the Supreme Court, Garland's inexplicable tardiness in arresting and holding accountable an insurrectionist and thief of Top Secret Documents...
The deck was stacked against us. It's easy to look back and re-quarterback. Better to learn and return to fight again. I'm in.
Thanks for the compliment. Since writing this, I've had a chance to think about it some more. That led me to the following observation. Gaetz could be a sacrificial lamb for the Gabbard appointment. Gaetz draws all of the fire and ultimately Trump makes a deal with Thune to give up Gaetz in return for approving Gabbard.
IMHO, Gabbard is the far more dangerous candidate if she is indeed compromised.
The other "tell" is that Trump is bypassing the normal FBI screen. Whether or not the Senate will go along with that isn't clear. The FBI did do a "sham" investigation of Kavanaugh at the request of the Trump administration. But I think that Trump is WAY more concerned about what might turn up if the FBI digs into who had been paying Gabbard's bills (other than Fox News), that last couple of years.
It is also interesting that Trump hasn't said anything about who he might nominate to replace Wray at the FBI. Maybe he hasn't got there yet on his list of todos. Or maybe he is hoping he has some leverage that he can use. We'll see.
With regard to the election, the numbers are pretty clear. Compared to the 2020 election, Harris got 8M fewer votes than Biden. 3M went to Trump. 500K went to third parties. And 4.5M or so decided not to vote at all. There are still votes being counted, so those numbers could change some, but the larger observation is that MORE voters chose not to vote at all than switched their votes to Trump or third parties.
With regard to why, there are LOTS of opinions of who shot John (or in this case Kamala), but the bigger question is what should the democrats do now?
On that question, I'm with Bernie. Workers have been getting screwed by both parties for decades.
We'll see if Democrats listen to Bernie, but I believe that there is a lot of overlap between the populist positions supported by conservatives and progressive positions. Trump has been able to hold this coalition of populists and culture warriors together. It isn't clear what will happen over the next four years. If we can peal away the populists and demonstrate a commitment to a new "billionaire free" worker-focused platform, we may be able to encourage those who felt they didn't have a choice the last time to support whomever our candidate is in 2028.
"Harris talked a lot about this, but clearly not enough voters believed her." They didn't believe because they've been hearing talk for a long time and have seen no action. Trump put in place a tariff program that foreshadows what he's discussing for the coming term and which contributed substantially to the inflation of his term and the early part of Biden's and about which Biden did nothing. The perception, accurate or not, is that both party's establishments are wholly owned subsidiaries of the donor class which also controls the mass media that many people still rely on for their "news". Biden, who right now owes nothing to anyone, could lay a strong foundation for a 2026 resurgence by using his last 60 days to do something other than pardon turkeys, light the White House Christmas tree and Hanukkah menorah. Among other things, he could remove the current tariff structure which would enable the reduction in price of many of the goods that will be purchased between now and Dec. 25 providing a much nicer celebration for the bulk of Americans who don't get their income from dividend checks and inflated bonuses; work with Chuck Schumer and Dick Durbin to confirm the 47 outstanding judicial nominees; and encourage his people to keep pointing out the failure of Trump's transition team to comply with ethics and security requirements designed and legislated to ensure the continuity of governance. The coming transition should be peaceful, and painless for the American people, not so much for the felonious failed insurrectionist and his team of sycophantic followers.
I agree. At this point, Biden and the Dems have already lost pretty much everything that they had to lose. Throw caution to the wind and put a stake in the ground for good governance for the working person.
In addition, I think he should "pre-pardon" everyone that he suspects is on the Trump "enemies" list. Everyone associated with the 1/6 commission. Everyone associated with the federal and state indictments including judges and FBI investigators. All of the judges and prosecutors associated with putting 1/6 insurrectionists in jail. Everyone who works at MSNBC, CNN, NYT, WaPost, LA Times, PBS, NPR, and Propublica (except for owners). Everyone associated with BLM. Everyone who worked on the Harris campaign, everyone who posted something critical about Trump on social media, and everyone who displayed a Harris/Waltz sign in their yard. Every democratic Governor, AG, and SOS. And the entire state of California.
Agreed, and Thune's election suggests he's either got Mitch's express backing and/or a significant pot of his own to spend. Harry Reid pioneered the role of Majority (and Minority) Leader as primary fundraiser and Mitch took it to another level. The Federalist writers, especially Hamilton and Madison, had confidence that ego would play a major role in maintaining the balance of power between the Legislative and Executive branches and, as we've been discussing, I think we're about to see a live demonstration of that principle. 2028 could be a free for all in both parties, with '26 as a trial run opening act.
The Gaetz pick is really interesting.
I think people sometimes seriously underestimate that power of Trump's lizard brain.
I think he understands that he is at PEAK power right now because he has all of these government jobs to hand out. But his political power will begin to wane as every elected official begins thinking about the inevitable reconning coming in 2026 AND the fact that Trump won't be on the ballot in 2028.
Thune winning the secret ballot for Majority leader was huge. McConnell still runs that show in part because he has a huge pot of money that he can use to reward those who stick with him and punish those that don't. Cruz, for example, complained bitterly that McConnell didn't "spend a dime" in Texas. Yup, McConnell made him an example of what happens to those who step out of line.
So Trump has tossed down the gauntlet with the Matt Gaetz nomination and will use that to test the level of support that he really has in the Senate. If the Senate refuses to give up their power to review appointments, then the Gaetz confirmation process will be a CIRCUS. And Trump will be able to use that circus to support his claim that his agenda in being blocked by McConnell. How that fight turns out will likely lay the foundation for how the next two years are going to go.
Excellent comment Jeff. There are three questions that hang in my brain right now.
Will Thune have some good ole fashioned chutzpah? Will he have the guts and foresight to stand up and challenge these absolutely incompetent and insulting choices to run the government? He will if he values his career. Trump won't be around much longer. All the damage he does will circle back and provide him with a karmic clobbering - and/or he will continue to disintegrate mentally and physically. All politicians are still human and have an expiration date.
Does Trump have the same type of kompromat on key formally normal Republicans that Putin has on him? Lindsey Graham is an obvious example. But how does a "moderate" Republican like Stephanik turn into a "wannabe Kari Lake"? Sure, ambition. But could there be more?
As all the votes are being cured, the election results seem to be coming closer and closer. Maybe this was not as much a mandate as it was a theft? In other words, did millions of Democrats and Independents just stay home or was it just too difficult to vote?
That being said, I think we lost for "all of the following" - black female, kitchen table economics, foreign interference especially on SM, immigration paranoia, failure of all media to continuously challenge Trumps legitimacy as a candidate, the Supreme Court, Garland's inexplicable tardiness in arresting and holding accountable an insurrectionist and thief of Top Secret Documents...
The deck was stacked against us. It's easy to look back and re-quarterback. Better to learn and return to fight again. I'm in.
Thanks for the compliment. Since writing this, I've had a chance to think about it some more. That led me to the following observation. Gaetz could be a sacrificial lamb for the Gabbard appointment. Gaetz draws all of the fire and ultimately Trump makes a deal with Thune to give up Gaetz in return for approving Gabbard.
IMHO, Gabbard is the far more dangerous candidate if she is indeed compromised.
The other "tell" is that Trump is bypassing the normal FBI screen. Whether or not the Senate will go along with that isn't clear. The FBI did do a "sham" investigation of Kavanaugh at the request of the Trump administration. But I think that Trump is WAY more concerned about what might turn up if the FBI digs into who had been paying Gabbard's bills (other than Fox News), that last couple of years.
It is also interesting that Trump hasn't said anything about who he might nominate to replace Wray at the FBI. Maybe he hasn't got there yet on his list of todos. Or maybe he is hoping he has some leverage that he can use. We'll see.
With regard to the election, the numbers are pretty clear. Compared to the 2020 election, Harris got 8M fewer votes than Biden. 3M went to Trump. 500K went to third parties. And 4.5M or so decided not to vote at all. There are still votes being counted, so those numbers could change some, but the larger observation is that MORE voters chose not to vote at all than switched their votes to Trump or third parties.
With regard to why, there are LOTS of opinions of who shot John (or in this case Kamala), but the bigger question is what should the democrats do now?
On that question, I'm with Bernie. Workers have been getting screwed by both parties for decades.
We'll see if Democrats listen to Bernie, but I believe that there is a lot of overlap between the populist positions supported by conservatives and progressive positions. Trump has been able to hold this coalition of populists and culture warriors together. It isn't clear what will happen over the next four years. If we can peal away the populists and demonstrate a commitment to a new "billionaire free" worker-focused platform, we may be able to encourage those who felt they didn't have a choice the last time to support whomever our candidate is in 2028.
"Harris talked a lot about this, but clearly not enough voters believed her." They didn't believe because they've been hearing talk for a long time and have seen no action. Trump put in place a tariff program that foreshadows what he's discussing for the coming term and which contributed substantially to the inflation of his term and the early part of Biden's and about which Biden did nothing. The perception, accurate or not, is that both party's establishments are wholly owned subsidiaries of the donor class which also controls the mass media that many people still rely on for their "news". Biden, who right now owes nothing to anyone, could lay a strong foundation for a 2026 resurgence by using his last 60 days to do something other than pardon turkeys, light the White House Christmas tree and Hanukkah menorah. Among other things, he could remove the current tariff structure which would enable the reduction in price of many of the goods that will be purchased between now and Dec. 25 providing a much nicer celebration for the bulk of Americans who don't get their income from dividend checks and inflated bonuses; work with Chuck Schumer and Dick Durbin to confirm the 47 outstanding judicial nominees; and encourage his people to keep pointing out the failure of Trump's transition team to comply with ethics and security requirements designed and legislated to ensure the continuity of governance. The coming transition should be peaceful, and painless for the American people, not so much for the felonious failed insurrectionist and his team of sycophantic followers.
I agree. At this point, Biden and the Dems have already lost pretty much everything that they had to lose. Throw caution to the wind and put a stake in the ground for good governance for the working person.
In addition, I think he should "pre-pardon" everyone that he suspects is on the Trump "enemies" list. Everyone associated with the 1/6 commission. Everyone associated with the federal and state indictments including judges and FBI investigators. All of the judges and prosecutors associated with putting 1/6 insurrectionists in jail. Everyone who works at MSNBC, CNN, NYT, WaPost, LA Times, PBS, NPR, and Propublica (except for owners). Everyone associated with BLM. Everyone who worked on the Harris campaign, everyone who posted something critical about Trump on social media, and everyone who displayed a Harris/Waltz sign in their yard. Every democratic Governor, AG, and SOS. And the entire state of California.
Agreed on the pardons, otherwise it could get ugly. Your exceptions for the legacy media pardons are well taken.
Agreed, and Thune's election suggests he's either got Mitch's express backing and/or a significant pot of his own to spend. Harry Reid pioneered the role of Majority (and Minority) Leader as primary fundraiser and Mitch took it to another level. The Federalist writers, especially Hamilton and Madison, had confidence that ego would play a major role in maintaining the balance of power between the Legislative and Executive branches and, as we've been discussing, I think we're about to see a live demonstration of that principle. 2028 could be a free for all in both parties, with '26 as a trial run opening act.
Great letter, Dave.
I have hope. I really do believe in karma. Sometimes, too often, it just takes too long.
Thanks Bill.
Yes he's probably busy staring at the glowing orb or dark cloud whichever you prefer
Right now, the orb is hidden, so I'm going with the clouds in the sky above me.
Yes! I approve this message.
Thanks Christopher.